A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
