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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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